Abstract:
COVID-19 spread in Kenya has been growing at a very
high rate in the recent past. According to the Kenya’s ministry of
health, the confirmed COVID-19 infections as of 19th July 2020
was 13,353 with recorded 5,122 recoveries and 234 deaths. Based
on quarantine data, there is media speculation about COVID-19
manifesting gender dimension, however, no studies have been
carried out to establish the gender-based dimension in the
community. This paper aimed at: formulating gender based
Mathematical model, estimate gender-based disease burden in the
community using quarantine data and using estimated parameters
and states to predict dynamics of the disease in the quarantine
centers. Mathematical compartment model was developed using
characteristic and status of disease. Daily number of infectious and
exposed in the community was estimated using interpolating
polynomials. Nonlinear least square was used to fit observed data
in the developed model. Prediction of the initial value problem
was carried out using MATLAB inbuilt ode solver. Daily estimate
of states in Figures 8 and 9 confirms that COVID-19 is also
burdening more males in the community than females. Simulation
using MATLAB indicated that the number of individuals who will
remain constantly infected after disease induced deaths and
recoveries ranges between (567 − 219) and (363 − 116) for males
and females respectively. Future studies should focus on
Mathematical model analysis and predictions of disease burden in
the community.
