Abstract:
Aims/ Objectives: To develop a compartment based mathematical model, fit daily quarantine data
from Ministry of Health of Kenya, estimate individuals in latency and infected in general community
and predict dynamics of quarantine for the next 90 days.
Study Design: Cross-sectional study.
Place and Duration of Study: 13thMarch 2020 to 30th June 2020. Methodology: The population based model was developed using status and characteristic of
COVID-19 infection. Quarantine data up to 30/6/2020 was fitted using integrating and differentiating
theory of odes and numerical differentiation polynomials. Parameter and state estimates was
approximated using least square. Simulations were carried out using ode Matlab solver. Daily
community estimates of individuals in latency and infected were obtained together with daily
estimate of rate of enlisting individual to quarantine center and their proportions were summarized.
Results: The results indicated that maximum infection rate was equal 0.892999 recorded on
28/6/2020, average infection rate was 0.019958 and minimum 0.00012 on 26/6/2020.
Conclusion: Predictions based on parameters and state averages indicated that the number of
individuals in quarantine are expected to rise exponentially up to about 26,855 individuals by 130th
day and remain constant up to 190th day.
